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    • On Conservatism and Risk Aversion | Opinion

      The State· 5 days ago

      My favorite example of how to think about probabilities versus outcomes is the guy who buys lottery tickets as his retirement plan. Things with better than one-in-four odds of happening happen ...

    • Trump’s Vegas Strategy: Run on Bad Luck

      Trump’s Vegas Strategy: Run on Bad Luck

      New York Times· 5 days ago

      At his first rally since his conviction, Trump complained about the odds being stacked against him. “It’s an Italian horn, a sign of luck,” Rose told me,...